Canada's New Immigration Horizon: Navigating Strategic Draws and a Major Policy Reversal
- Gagandeep Singh
- Oct 19
- 5 min read
This past week was one of the most dynamic in recent memory, delivering both critical policy shifts and strategic Express Entry draws that define the current direction of Canadian immigration. As a Registered Canadian Immigration Consultant (RCIC), my focus is on translating these events into clear action items for our clients. We saw IRCC's strategic prioritization of critical labour needs, a significant reversal in provincial nomination quotas, and a sobering update to the Start-up Visa program.
Here is your detailed weekly recap of all the major developments from Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada (IRCC).
1. Express Entry: A Focus on Targeted Growth
IRCC held two highly targeted rounds of invitations this week, reinforcing their commitment to using the Express Entry system for specific economic priorities, rather than holding an All-Program draw.
Draw Date | Draw Type | Invitations Issued (ITAs) | Minimum CRS Score |
October 14, 2025 (Draw 372) | Provincial Nominee Program (PNP) | 345 | 778 |
October 15, 2025 (Draw 373) | Healthcare and Social Services Occupations | 2,500 | 472 |
The draws this week tell a clear story: human capital scores alone are not enough; category-based selection is the dominant strategy.
The PNP Draw (CRS 778): This high score is consistent with PNP-specific draws, as successful candidates receive an automatic 600-point boost on their Comprehensive Ranking System (CRS) score. This draw size (345 ITAs) is modest but crucial, confirming that the pathway through a Provincial Nominee Program remains the most reliable route to an Invitation to Apply (ITA) for many applicants.
The Healthcare Draw (CRS 472): This draw is highly significant. Issuing 2,500 ITAs at a cut-off of 472 demonstrates IRCC's aggressive, targeted approach to tackling Canada's critical healthcare labour shortages. For comparison, a score of 472 would be highly competitive in a general draw, but for a category-based draw, it signals that many skilled healthcare workers who may have otherwise been overlooked in an All-Program draw are now receiving invitations. This affirms the immense value placed on work experience in designated categories.
The takeaway for Express Entry candidates is straightforward: if you are not competitive in a general draw (CRS in the 500s), your immigration strategy must center on gaining a Provincial Nomination or qualifying for a specific category-based selection (like French-language, STEM, or Trades).
2. Provincial Nominee Programs (PNPs) Receive a Late-Year Boost
The biggest policy news of the week came from the Honourable Lena Metlege Diab, Minister of Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship, who announced a major policy adjustment in Halifax.
Minister’s Statement and Policy Shift
During a press conference on October 16, 2025, Minister Diab confirmed that the federal government is reversing recent cuts to the Provincial Nominee Program (PNP) allocations for provinces, including a "significant" increase for Nova Scotia. This decision follows strong appeals from provincial and territorial governments who warned that the earlier cuts were severely constraining their ability to meet local labour demands.
In an interview, Minister Diab also reiterated that her mandate under the new government is to establish a more balanced immigration system, including a commitment to reduce the overall share of temporary residents in Canada (targeting 5% of the total population by the end of 2026).
This policy reversal is a huge positive signal for Canada’s economic-class immigration future.
Increased PNP Value: By restoring and boosting provincial allocations, the federal government is effectively increasing the number of permanent residents selected by the provinces to meet specific, localized labour shortages. A Provincial Nomination is now, more than ever, the Golden Ticket to permanent residence.
Strategic Balance: The combined messaging—higher PNP allocations (permanent residents) alongside a mandate to reduce the temporary resident population (students and workers)—shows IRCC is actively shifting its focus. The goal is clear: transition away from high volumes of temporary residents and toward a greater proportion of permanent residents whose skills are specifically vetted and chosen by provincial governments to address long-term needs.
3. Business Immigration: A Major Setback for the Start-up Visa
This week brought unfortunate news regarding the processing times for the Start-up Visa (SUV) Program.
SUV Program Update
Official sources have updated the processing time for the Start-up Visa (SUV) permanent residence application to "more than 10 years" for new applicants. This astronomical wait time is a consequence of the vast backlog (estimated at over 18,000 applications) and the recent reduction in annual targets for business immigration. IRCC has capped the total number of applications each Designated Organization (DO) can support annually, and the overall allocation for the SUV program has been significantly reduced for 2025, with further decreases anticipated in the coming years.
The current status of the SUV program is deeply concerning. While the program’s intent to attract innovative entrepreneurs is vital for Canada's economy, a ten-year processing time makes the permanent residence pathway practically non-functional for entrepreneurs who rely on market-speed execution.
The only viable route is the priority track: Entrepreneurs must now focus exclusively on securing the priority processing stream, which is reserved for start-ups that have secured Canadian venture capital or are backed by a member of Canada’s Tech Network.
The Work Permit Option: While the open work permit option allows entrepreneurs to come to Canada sooner (after receiving an Acknowledgement of Receipt, a process that can still take over a year), the prospect of waiting a decade for PR status undermines the program’s core value proposition. Clients should be advised that the SUV is currently an extremely high-risk, long-term pathway with no guarantees. Alternative programs, such as provincial entrepreneur streams, should be explored vigorously.
4. Looking Ahead: What to Expect in the Coming Week
The next week is poised for one of the most important announcements of the year: the release of the 2026–2028 Immigration Levels Plan.
Expectations and Analysis
The 2026–2028 Levels Plan: This plan will set the definitive targets for all permanent resident categories for the next three years. We expect to see a stabilization or slight reduction in overall permanent resident numbers from the 2025 peak, in line with the government’s push for "sustainable growth." Crucially, we anticipate higher proportional targets for the Provincial Nominee Program (PNP) and the Category-Based Express Entry selections (especially French-language, STEM, and Healthcare) at the expense of general intake (like Federal Skilled Worker/Canadian Experience Class) to align with Minister Diab’s strategy.
Express Entry Draws: Given IRCC's recent pattern, if a draw is held next week, it is most likely to be another targeted, category-based draw (perhaps for French Language Proficiency or a STEM category) to continue filling the annual quota ahead of the new Levels Plan release. An "All-Program" draw seems highly unlikely until the new targets are officially published.
An Interesting Immigration Tip for the Week
The French Advantage: Your CRS Secret Weapon For Express Entry
Canada’s commitment to Francophone immigration outside of Quebec is stronger than ever, and it presents a tremendous advantage for candidates. If you are struggling to raise your CRS score, consider focusing on French language proficiency. Candidates who demonstrate strong French skills (even if English is their first language) not only gain extra CRS points but also qualify for the French Language Proficiency Category Draws. These draws consistently feature some of the lowest CRS cut-off scores in the Express Entry system, providing a high-speed, strategic pathway to permanent residence.
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