Canada's Path Forward: Analyzing the 2025 Fall Economic Statement & This Week in Immigration
- Gagandeep Singh
- Nov 9
- 4 min read
Welcome to your weekly update on all things Canadian immigration. This is our roundup of the most significant events you need to know about.
This was a landmark week in Ottawa. The new government delivered its first major fiscal update, the 2025 Fall Economic Statement (FES), providing the clearest picture yet of its vision for immigration. This, combined with the stated priorities of our new Prime Minister, Mark Carney, and Immigration Minister, Lena Diab, signals a significant shift in policy.
Let's break down what it all means.
The Main Event: 2025 Fall Economic Statement & The New "Sustainable" Approach
All eyes were on the Finance Minister this week as the 2025 Fall Economic Statement was unveiled. As predicted, immigration was a core theme, but with a new tone that aligns with the government's mandate.
Key Announcements:
Funding for "Sustainable" Processing: The government has allocated new, targeted funding to IRCC. The goal is not just to reduce backlogs, but to create "predictable and sustainable" processing times, with a stated focus on family reunification and in-Canada applicants.
The "Absorptive Capacity" Link: The FES document explicitly and repeatedly links future immigration levels to Canada's "absorptive capacity"—specifically, the availability of housing, healthcare, and infrastructure.
Ministerial Context:
In a press release following the FES, the Minister of Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship, The Honourable Lena Diab, reinforced this message. She stated, "Our government is committed to an immigration system that benefits all Canadians. This means welcoming the skilled newcomers who fill our labour gaps and reuniting families, while ensuring that our communities are prepared to welcome them."
My Analysis: What This Means for You
This FES marks a clear pivot from the "growth-at-all-costs" model of previous years. Here’s my breakdown of this new "balanced" or "sustainable" approach:
The 2026-2028 Levels Plan Will Be Different: The previous government's aggressive, record-breaking targets are likely a thing of the past. Based on the FES and PM Carney's previous statements, I predict the upcoming Immigration Levels Plan will show stable or "level" targets, not significant increases. The era of 500,000+ new PRs a year may be over for now.
Prioritizing In-Canada Applicants: The new government's focus is on "those already in Canada." This is great news for temporary foreign workers (TFWs) and international graduates. I expect we will see a strong continuation of category-based draws and policies that favor candidates with Canadian work experience.
A Familiar Focus from Minister Diab: Minister Diab brings a wealth of experience from her time as Nova Scotia's successful provincial immigration minister. She knows the power of PNPs and targeted streams. This background, combined with the new federal mandate, suggests a massive empowerment of the Provincial Nominee Programs (PNPs). The government will rely heavily on provinces to select the exact immigrants their local economies and communities can support.
"Sustainable Processing" is Cautious Language: The new funding for IRCC is good, but the language is telling. It suggests a focus on creating a reliable system rather than just a fast one. We may see improvements in visitor visa and work permit times, but the main goal will be to stop the backlogs from growing again.
Express Entry: A Strategic Pause
There were no Express Entry draws held this week (November 3-7, 2025).
This was almost certainly a deliberate move. It would have been politically tone-deaf for IRCC to hold a large draw in the same week the government was delivering a major economic address focused on "sustainable" levels and "absorptive capacity."
IRCC was waiting for the FES to set the new tone. This pause also allows the candidate pool to fill up, but the key question is who they will invite next.
Provincial Nominee Program (PNP) Updates
While Ottawa was focused on the big picture, the provinces were busy with the specifics. This is where the real action is.
British Columbia (BC PNP): On November 4, BC held its targeted draws, inviting candidates in Tech, Healthcare, and Childcare. This aligns perfectly with the federal strategy: selecting only for specific, high-priority sectors.
Ontario (OINP): The OINP held a vital draw for the Skilled Trades stream on November 5. This is a direct response to the housing shortage, as these candidates have the skills to build new homes.
Saskatchewan (SINP): Saskatchewan also issued invitations for its Occupations In-Demand stream, targeting specific NOC codes that are critically needed in the province.
The PNP results are a perfect mirror of the new government's strategy. The focus is not on high CRS scores, but on verifiable skills that fill a specific job. Ontario's trades draw is the clearest example. If you are not in a federal category-based pool (like STEM or Healthcare), your primary and most powerful pathway to PR is now, more than ever, through a PNP.
Business Immigration & Start-Up Visa (SUV)
No new policy or processing updates were announced for the Start-Up Visa program this week.
The SUV program remains in a state of uncertainty. While the new government values innovation, its "sustainable" and "in-Canada" focus may not prioritize a program that brings in applicants from overseas without (initially) a guaranteed high-paying job. We may see this program de-emphasized in favor of pathways for high-skilled tech workers who are already working for Canadian companies.
What to Expect Next Week (November 10-14)
A "Measured" Express Entry Draw: I expect Express Entry draws to resume. However, I do not predict a massive "all-program" draw. Instead, look for a targeted category-based draw (like Healthcare or French-language) or perhaps a PNP-only draw. The government will want its first draw post-FES to be highly strategic.
Focus on In-Canada Candidates: If a general or category-based draw does happen, I predict it may target candidates who are already in Canada, aligning with the new "prioritize temporary residents" mandate.
More PNP Action: Expect draws from Manitoba (MPNP) and Prince Edward Island (PEI), as they are both due for their regular mid-month invitations.
This Week's Immigration Tip
The "Provincial Pivot": If your Express Entry score is stagnant, stop waiting. It's time to pivot. Go to the official websites of provinces like Alberta, Saskatchewan, and Ontario. Find their in-demand occupation lists.
Even if you don't qualify for a direct stream, simply having your Express Entry profile in the federal pool makes you visible. Provinces (especially Ontario) actively search the pool and send "Notifications of Interest" to candidates they like. But to be "liked," your profile must be tailored to their needs. Update your NOC code, ensure your work experience is detailed, and show any links you have to that province.
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