Record Trades Draw, a Door Cracked Open on Levels, and a Month That Could Reshape 2027
Canada’s immigration system had a busy, and in places genuinely encouraging, week. IRCC held three Express Entry rounds in four days, issuing 6,233 invitations to apply (ITAs), including the largest Trades draw since the category was created. The Prime Minister signalled that a “controlled increase” in the population is coming, and the clock is now running toward the 2027–2029 Immigration Levels Plan.
Meanwhile Ontario’s new nomination stream is still waiting for its first invitation, and a new look at IRCC’s inventory explains why some applicants wait years even when their files are complete.
Below is what happened, what it means in practice, and what to watch in October.
The week at a glance Three Express Entry draws (6,233 ITAs): PNP, 733 at CRS 725 · CEC, 2,000 at CRS 518 · Trades, 3,500 at CRS 476. Express Entry total for 2026: 135,215 ITAs across 59 draws. Levels Plan expected by November 1 (or within 30 sitting days if Parliament is not sitting). Ontario Workforce Priority stream: still no invitations. |
1. Express Entry: Draws and CRS Analysis
Draw # | Date | Category | ITAs | Lowest CRS |
445 | Sept 28 | Provincial Nominee Program | 733 | 725 |
446 | Sept 29 | Canadian Experience Class | 2,000 | 518 |
447 | Oct 1 | Trade occupations (2026-Version 3) | 3,500 | 476 |
Trades: the largest round the category has seen
The October 1 Trades draw invited 3,500 candidates at a minimum CRS of 476, one point lower than the 477 cutoff of the first Trades round on April 2, which issued 3,000. It is the largest Trades draw since the category was first prioritized in 2023, and brings 2026’s Trades ITAs to 6,500. Candidates at exactly 476 needed a profile created on or before May 28, 2026 (16:55 UTC) to be invited. Cooks were removed from the Trades category ahead of the April round, so eligibility should be checked against the current NOC list rather than earlier-year lists.
What this means: a Trades cutoff in the mid-470s is far below what general or CEC rounds require. Tradespeople with a valid Express Entry profile and qualifying experience in an occupation on the current Trades list who have been sitting in the mid-400s should review their profile, language results and work-experience documentation now, because the pool’s composition and IRCC’s category schedule can change without notice.
CEC: a third straight decline, but a narrow band
The September 29 CEC round invited 2,000 candidates at CRS 518, one point below the September 15 cutoff of 519 and three below the September 1 cutoff of 521. The tie-breaking cut-off was February 13, 2026. CEC has been the most active program-specific draw type of 2026 with 17 rounds and roughly 55,000 ITAs, and cutoffs have stayed inside a narrow 507–523 band. Candidates in the 500–520 range are clearly in contention, but a one-point drift is not a trend to bank on.
PNP-aligned round: 733 invitations at CRS 725
On September 28, IRCC invited 733 provincial nominees at CRS 725. A provincial nomination adds 600 CRS points, which is why PNP-aligned rounds carry cutoffs far above any other draw type; the 725 cutoff reflects the lowest-scoring invited nominee’s base score plus that boost.
Year-to-date and pool
• 2026 total after Oct 1: 135,215 ITAs across 59 draws. That is already above the roughly 114,000 ITAs issued across all of 2025 (published year-end tallies differ slightly, at 113,998 and 114,102).
• Pool size as of September 27: 229,904 candidates, including 21,070 with scores between 501 and 600.
• Pace: IRCC has held draws at roughly two per week through much of September. Draw dates and sizes are never announced in advance.
2. Provincial Nominee Program (PNP) Updates
Ontario: the Workforce Priority stream still has not issued an invitation
As of the end of September, Ontario had not held a single invitation round under the Ontario Workforce Priority stream, which replaced all eight former OINP streams in late June. The EOI portal reopened on August 4, and the last draw under the old streams was April 30. The stream scores candidates on a 130-point grid (job offer and Ontario experience, personal profile, and job location), and the ministry has said rounds may occur without notice. Candidates and employers should keep EOIs, job offers and supporting documents current so that a sudden round does not catch them unprepared. Ontario’s first draw is one of the most closely watched events of October.
Other provinces and territories: dates that matter
• British Columbia: the BC PNP Temporary Rural/Remote Health Support Initiative stops accepting registrations at 11:59 p.m. PT on October 7 (extended earlier because of wildfires). It covers cleaners and security staff directly employed by public health authorities in qualifying rural or remote communities, with up to 250 nominations planned.
• Alberta and Manitoba: both were active in the weeks just before this reporting window. Alberta ran six AAIP draws between September 10 and 23, and Manitoba’s September 24 draw (#280) issued 474 invitations. No new Manitoba round had been confirmed at the time of writing.
• Prince Edward Island: the province’s published schedule lists an anticipated draw on October 15, its tenth of 2026, with November 19 and December 17 to follow.
• Yukon: public engagement on the Yukon Nominee Program closes October 8. It is a consultation, not a rule change; program changes are expected in 2027.
• Quebec: the first intake window of the temporarily reactivated PEQ closes October 31. It is limited to applicants who met the applicable criterion by November 19, 2025.
• Saskatchewan: no EOI draws; 2026 intake runs through capped sector windows rather than scored draws.
3. Business Immigration and Employer News
The federal business picture is unchanged this week: the Start-Up Visa program is closed to new applications (other than applicants holding a valid 2025 designated-organization commitment who have not yet applied), and the Self-Employed Persons Program remains paused indefinitely. IRCC continues to process existing files, but the 2026 federal business admissions target is only 500 across both programs, so capacity is the constraint. Entrepreneurs should look at provincial entrepreneur streams, which continue to operate, though British Columbia’s September entrepreneur selection was small.
LMIA: new unemployment-rate table due October 9
Employment and Social Development Canada will publish its quarterly table of Census Metropolitan Area unemployment rates on October 9. Since September 2024, low-wage LMIA applications are refused in any CMA with an unemployment rate of 6% or higher at the time of submission. Rates from the July table govern applications through October 8. Cities can move in or out of restriction; for example, Vancouver entered the restricted list in April at 6.5% and sat at 6.7% in July, and Regina reopened in July after falling to 5.9%. Employers with low-wage hiring plans should check whether filing before or after October 9 changes their eligibility. The restriction does not affect existing work permits or high-wage LMIAs.
4. Ministerial and Political Statements
The main story this week is the Prime Minister’s interview with The New York Times, reported by The Canadian Press on September 29. Mark Carney said the immigration system is back under control and that the question now is when Canada resumes a “controlled increase” in the population. He gave no timeline and no numbers.
• Minister Lena Diab’s office told The Canadian Press that the 2027–2029 plan will keep immigration at “sustainable levels,” without confirming that admissions will rise next year. Read together, the signal is direction, not a policy change.
• Conservative immigration critic Michelle Rempel Garner responded that targets need to go “way down,” setting up a clear political contrast ahead of the plan.
• The C.D. Howe Institute’s Immigration Targets Council (September 3) recommended continued reductions and treating the 5% temporary-resident target as a ceiling. Statistics Canada estimated non-permanent residents at 6.7% of the population on July 1.
• For reference, the 2026–2028 plan sets 380,000 permanent resident admissions in 2026, with 239,800 economic admissions in 2026 rising to 244,700 in 2027 and 2028.
Our read Carney’s remarks and Minister Diab’s caution are consistent: expect a plan that stabilizes numbers or nudges them up modestly, with continued pressure on temporary arrivals, rather than a sharp reversal. Planning on the basis of current targets is still the sound approach until the plan is tabled. |
Nearly 250,000 PR applications are “waiting for space”
IRCC’s application-processing data (as of July 31, 2026) shows roughly 248,000 permanent residence applications that are complete but waiting for admissions space under yearly targets: about 56,000 economic, 68,000 family and 124,000 protection-related. Overall, about 35% of the 716,600 unfinalized applications are in this queue. IRCC’s Deputy Minister transition binder (September 4) also confirms inland spousal sponsorship waits of roughly three years, while overseas spouses, partners and children have a 12-month service standard that IRCC aims to meet 80% of the time. By contrast, about 78% of FSW and CEC applicants received decisions within six months between August 2025 and July 2026.
5. Week-Ahead Outlook and Key Dates
Date | Event | Who it affects |
Oct 7 | BC PNP Rural/Remote Health registration closes (11:59 p.m. PT) | Health-authority cleaning and security staff |
Oct 8 | Yukon Nominee Program consultation closes | Yukon employers and candidates |
Oct 9 | ESDC publishes new CMA unemployment table (low-wage LMIA) | Employers, TFW applicants |
Oct 15 | PEI anticipated invitation round (Labour Impact, Express Entry) | PEI EOI candidates |
Oct 31 | Quebec PEQ first intake window closes | Eligible Quebec workers and graduates |
By Nov 1* | 2027–2029 Levels Plan due (*30 sitting days if Parliament is not sitting) | Everyone |
Any day | Express Entry draws; Ontario’s first Workforce Priority round | EE and OINP candidates |
What to expect: IRCC has favoured CEC rounds near 2,000 ITAs, alternating with category rounds (healthcare, French-language, trades, senior managers) and PNP rounds roughly every couple of weeks. Following a very large Trades round, a CEC or French-language draw in the next week or two would be consistent with recent patterns, but IRCC does not announce dates, so these are observations, not predictions.
6. Immigration Tip of the Week
“Waiting for space” is not the same as “stuck”: what to do while your PR file is in the queue
If your permanent residence application shows as complete but is not moving, you may be in the queue for admissions space rather than facing a problem with your file.
A few practical steps:
• Know what the status means. It signals that the file is complete and waiting for room under the yearly target. It is not an approval, and eligibility, admissibility, medical and security requirements still have to be satisfied.
• Keep everything current. Passports, police certificates, medical results and language tests expire. A file that finally reaches an officer with expired documents will be delayed again. Diarize expiry dates.
• Respond to IRCC requests quickly. Delays caused by incomplete responses are separate from, and in addition to, any queue.
• Protect your status. Where eligible, a spouse or partner may apply for an open work permit while the PR application is processed. Do not let work or visitor status lapse while waiting; apply for extensions early.
• Update your life events. Changes in marital status, a new child, a new address or new employment must be reported accurately.
Not sure where your file stands? Contact Elgin Immigration for a file review.
This blog is for informational purposes only and does not constitute legal advice. Immigration policies and procedures can change; please contact Elgin Immigration at info@elginimmigration.com for advice specific to your situation.
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