A Door Ajar: Express Entry Roars Back as Ottawa Signals a Possible Shift
Two weeks of fast-moving news have landed since our last edition, and the headline is a welcome one: after a 12-day silence, IRCC ran three Express Entry rounds in just four days, inviting 6,233 candidates and pushing the 2026 total past 135,000 invitations. At the same time, Prime Minister Mark Carney has opened the door to a conversation about resuming a “controlled increase” in Canada’s population, weeks before the 2027–2029 Immigration Levels Plan is due. It is a cautiously optimistic moment, but one that still demands careful planning, because other doors, such as low-wage work permits in 30 cities, Ontario’s new employer-driven stream and federal business immigration, remain firmly narrowed.
At a Glance • Express Entry: PNP (733 ITAs, CRS 725), CEC (2,000 ITAs, CRS 518) and Trades (3,500 ITAs, CRS 476) rounds between Sept 28 and Oct 1. 2026 running total: 59 rounds and 135,215 ITAs. • Provincial programs: Alberta, BC, Manitoba and PEI invited roughly 1,200 candidates between Sept 24 and Oct 8, focused on health care, education, childcare, construction and aviation. • Ontario: the Workforce Priority Stream has still issued no invitations, more than nine weeks after its EOI portal opened on August 4. • Policy signal: the PM says the system is “back under control” and a “controlled increase” is next. The levels plan is due by November 1 (a Sunday this year). • Employers: the low-wage LMIA processing freeze now covers 30 of 41 CMAs from October 9 to January 7, 2027, including Toronto, Hamilton and most of southern Ontario. |
1. Express Entry: Three Rounds in Four Days
IRCC broke a 12-day lull (the last round was the September 16 Senior Managers draw) with a burst of activity that touched every major lane of the system. Candidates with ties to Canada, whether through a provincial nomination, Canadian work experience or a skilled trade, continue to receive the lion’s share of invitations.
Round | Date | Draw type | ITAs | CRS | |
445 | Sept 28 | Provincial Nominee Program | 733 | 725 | |
446 | Sept 29 | Canadian Experience Class | 2,000 | 518 | |
447 | Oct 1 | Trades occupations (2026, Version 3) | 3,500 | 476 |
Provincial Nominee Program round (CRS 725)
The 733 invitations went to candidates holding a provincial nomination, which adds 600 CRS points. A cut-off of 725 therefore implies a base score of roughly 125 before the nomination. The cut-off was nine points lower than the September 14 PNP round (734), and with only 728 candidates sitting above 600 points in the pool as of September 27, this draw very likely cleared virtually every nominated profile. Anyone holding a nomination should ensure the profile is active and the nomination correctly linked, because the next PNP round will not wait.
Canadian Experience Class round (CRS 518)
The CEC cut-off slipped another point, from 519 on September 15, and has now fallen in three consecutive rounds (523 on August 18, 521 on September 1, 519, then 518). That is a slow glide rather than a collapse, but it matters: with 17 CEC rounds and 55,250 invitations in 2026, roughly 42% of all Express Entry ITAs this year, CEC remains the workhorse for in-Canada workers. Candidates scoring in the low 500s should look at every available lever, such as a stronger language result, a French-language test or additional Canadian work experience.
Trades occupations round (CRS 476)
This was only the second trades round of 2026, following April 2 (3,000 ITAs at CRS 477). The October draw was 500 invitations larger and one point lower, bringing trades invitations to 6,500 for the year. A trades cut-off roughly 40 points below the latest CEC round shows how much a category can lower the bar for those who qualify. Candidates may be eligible through the Federal Skilled Worker Program, Canadian Experience Class or Federal Skilled Trades Program, provided they meet the experience requirement in a designated trade occupation. Notably, 16,465 pool candidates sit between 471 and 480, so competition at the margin remains intense.
2026 Express Entry by the numbers (through October 1)
Draw category | ITAs issued | Share of total |
Canadian Experience Class | 55,250 | 40.9% |
French-language proficiency (10 rounds, CRS 382 to 420) | 50,500 | 37.3% |
Healthcare and social services | 11,500 | 8.5% |
Provincial Nominee Program | 9,270 | 6.9% |
Trades | 6,500 | 4.8% |
Senior managers with Canadian work experience | 1,000 | 0.7% |
Physicians with Canadian work experience | 891 | 0.7% |
Transport | 300 | 0.2% |
Skilled military recruits | 4 | <0.1% |
Total (59 rounds) | 135,215 | 100% |
Three consultation-listed categories (STEM, education and researchers with Canadian work experience) had not yet received a dedicated round as of October 1, so a first draw in one of them remains a live possibility. The Express Entry pool stood at 229,904 candidates on September 27, up from 226,793 two weeks earlier. IRCC does not announce draw dates in advance, and we are not aware of any round since October 1 as of this writing.
Planning note for candidates IRCC’s 2027 category consultation (August 4 to September 1) floated H-1B holders, AI and emerging-technology workers, researchers and a possible narrowing of some labour-shortage categories. Nothing has been finalized, and the 2027 categories are not expected before early 2027. Do not restructure a profile around a category that does not yet exist. |
2. Provincial Nominee Program Updates
Provincial draws between September 24 and October 8 show the same pattern we have tracked all year: provinces are aiming nominations at specific shortages (health care, education, childcare, construction, aviation and rural communities) and rewarding candidates with local job offers or credentials.
Alberta (AAIP): 476 invitations across four draws
Date | Stream | Min. score | Invitations |
Sept 24 | Rural Renewal Stream | 51 | 131 |
Sept 29 | Alberta Express Entry: Priority Sectors (General) | 64 | 200 |
Oct 2 | Alberta Opportunity Stream | 54 | 123 |
Oct 7 | Alberta Express Entry: Priority Sectors (Aviation) | 56 | 22 |
As of October 7, Alberta had issued 5,541 of its 6,603 nominations for 2026, leaving 1,062 spaces and 948 applications still to be processed. Alberta has invited 13,172 candidates this year, so remaining capacity is finite and late-year draws could tighten.
British Columbia (BC PNP): 283 invitations on October 8
Category | Selection | Min. score | Invitations |
Care: Childcare | Early childhood educators only | 99 | 86 |
Care: Health | All priority health care occupations | 76 | 82 |
Build: Construction Trades | All priority construction occupations | 94 | 115 |
Care: Veterinary Care | All priority veterinary care occupations | 86 | Fewer than 5 |
The Skills Immigration pool held 7,695 registrations as of October 6, and BC has invited up to 6,461 candidates in 2026. The 283 published invitations compare with 429 in the September 10 draw. A BC nomination is worth 600 CRS points, which in practice leads to an Express Entry invitation.
Manitoba (MPNP) Draw: 340 Letters of Advice to Apply
Held October 8, this was Manitoba’s 20th round of 2026 and, unlike the three before it, had no top-scoring selection. 257 invitations went to Skilled Workers in Manitoba through occupation-specific selection (211 to education and childcare occupations led by teachers and early childhood educators, and 46 to health occupations), and 83 to the Skilled Worker Stream. In total, 103 invitees held an Express Entry profile number with a job-seeker validation code. Manitoba has now issued 7,223 invitations this year, 2,150 of them to candidates with Express Entry profiles, and has kept its two-week Thursday rhythm into October.
Prince Edward Island and Saskatchewan
• PEI PNP: an unscheduled October 7 round issued 90 invitations to priority-sector workers, favouring PEI job offers and graduates of UPEI, Holland College and Collège de l’Île. PEI has invited 1,319 candidates this year. The next draw is scheduled for October 15.
• Saskatchewan SINP: no new intake to report this fortnight. The province works from capped sector-based intake windows rather than scored draws, against an initial 2026 allocation of 4,761 nominations. Check the SINP site for current intake status.
Ontario Workforce Priority Stream: still waiting Ontario’s new employer-driven stream opened its EOI portal on August 4, 2026, replacing all eight former OINP streams. As of October 8, Ontario’s official updates page lists no invitation round, cut-off or targeting criteria, and the province has not announced a first-draw date. Employers should remember that once a worker is invited, the employer has a very tight 14-day window to submit job-offer details. Prepare the paperwork now, because invitations may come without notice. |
3. Business Immigration and Employer News
Federal business programs: no change, still closed
We found no new federal announcement this fortnight. The Start-Up Visa has been closed to new applications since December 31, 2025 (holders of valid 2025 commitment certificates had until June 30, 2026 to file), and the Self-Employed Persons Program has been paused since April 2024. The 2026–2028 levels plan halves the federal business target to 500 admissions. IRCC has promised a new, more selective entrepreneur pilot, but no eligibility criteria or intake date have been published. For entrepreneurs, provincial business streams and work-permit routes such as intra-company transfers remain the practical options.
Low-wage LMIA freeze expands to 30 cities (effective October 9)
Under ESDC’s quarterly update, employers cannot initiate low-wage LMIAs in census metropolitan areas with an unemployment rate of 6% or higher. The restricted list now covers 30 of 41 CMAs, up from 26, and applies from October 9, 2026 to January 7, 2027. The next update is scheduled for January 8, 2027.
• Added: Halifax (6.1%), Fredericton (6.2%), Kingston (6.3%), St. Catharines–Niagara (6.5%), Regina (6.7%) and Lethbridge (6.0%).
• Removed: Kamloops and Chilliwack, where unemployment fell.
• Ontario: 15 Ontario CMAs are on the list, including Toronto (7.5%), Hamilton (7.4%), Kitchener–Cambridge–Waterloo (7.6%), Oshawa (9.8%, the highest in the country), London (9.1%) and Greater Sudbury (6.2%).
• What “low-wage” means: jobs paying below 120% of the provincial median wage (Ontario’s threshold is $36.92 per hour for LMIAs received on or after July 17, 2026).
• Exemptions: primary agriculture, construction, food manufacturing, hospitals, and nursing and residential care facilities, plus in-home caregivers (nurses, childcare providers and personal support workers) hired by private households.
Workers who already hold a valid permit are not cancelled by the update, and those who apply to extend before expiry may benefit from maintained status. Employers in affected cities should speak with a licensed representative before budgeting for a low-wage hire or renewal.
4. Ministerial and Political Statements
Carney: the question is “when,” not “whether,” on a controlled increase
In an interview with the New York Times reported by The Canadian Press on September 29, Prime Minister Carney said Canada’s immigration system is back under control and that the question now is when to resume a “controlled increase” in the population. His office was careful: a spokesperson said the 2027–2029 levels plan will keep immigration at sustainable levels, and no new targets have been announced. Conservative immigration critic Michelle Rempel Garner responded that this is not the time to plan for more immigration.
Where the numbers stand today
• Current plan (2026–2028): 380,000 permanent resident admissions in each year, 239,800 of them economic class in 2026; new temporary arrivals of 385,000 in 2026, falling to 370,000 in 2027 and 2028.
• One-time initiatives: the plan also layers on roughly 148,000 additional PR transitions (about 115,000 protected persons plus up to 33,000 temporary workers) that sit outside the headline numbers.
• Population: Statistics Canada estimates 41,798,407 people on July 1, 2026, up just 189,425 (0.5%) in a year, the smallest July-to-July increase since 1944/45. Non-permanent residents fell by 154,614 to 2,779,774, or 6.7% of the population, still above the government’s 5% goal for the end of 2027.
• PR admissions: IRCC open data analysed by Immigration News Canada shows nearly 24,000 fewer PRs granted in the first seven months of 2026 than in the same period of 2025.
• Counter-pressure: the C.D. Howe Institute’s immigration targets council has urged further cuts to temporary resident numbers and treating the 5% target as a ceiling.
The statutory deadline for tabling the levels plan is November 1. Because November 1, 2026 is a Sunday, the plan’s timing will depend on the parliamentary calendar, so watch for it in the first days of November.
Ebola-related immigration measures extended to November 27
On September 28, IRCC extended its temporary measures for 60 days. Immigration documents remain suspended for residents of the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Uganda and South Sudan, including people holding previously approved visas, permits or eTAs. IRCC continues to process affected applications but will not finalize them while the measures are in force. Foreign nationals who were in the DRC in the previous 21 days cannot board a flight to Canada, and others returning from the affected countries, including Canadian citizens and permanent residents, face a 21-day quarantine. The government has left open further extension, and these measures are the first major use of the expanded powers in Bill C-12.
5. Week-Ahead Outlook and Key Dates
Date | What to watch | Who it affects |
Mon, Oct 12 | Canadian Thanksgiving, a federal holiday, so expect the IRCC working week to start Tuesday | All applicants |
Week of Oct 12 (unannounced) | Next Express Entry round(s). Draws have followed a roughly two-week rhythm; IRCC gives no advance notice | EE candidates |
Thu, Oct 15 | PEI PNP scheduled draw | PEI EOI candidates |
Thursdays (approx. every two weeks) | Manitoba MPNP draw cadence; Alberta draws most weeks | MB and AB candidates |
Any day (no date set) | First Ontario Workforce Priority Stream invitations | Ontario employers and workers |
By Nov 1 (a Sunday) | 2027–2029 Immigration Levels Plan due to Parliament | Everyone |
Nov 27, 11:59 pm ET | Ebola-related immigration measures expire unless extended | DRC, Uganda, South Sudan residents |
Jan 7 – 8, 2027 | Current LMIA CMA list ends; updated list takes effect | Employers, foreign workers |
Our outlook
• Express Entry: expect continued rounds for CEC and French-language candidates, with CEC likely to hold in the 515 to 520 range. A first draw in STEM, education or researchers is possible but unconfirmed. After a record-pace year, the real strategic question is what the new levels plan means for 2027 volumes.
• Provinces: with Alberta and BC drawing down allocations, candidates tied to priority occupations should keep EOIs current. Ontario’s first Workforce Priority round could arrive at any time.
• Policy: a “controlled increase” could mean higher PR targets, a slower pace of temporary-resident cuts, or both. Temporary resident numbers will likely stay tightly managed, so temporary-to-permanent pathways should remain a priority.
6. Immigration Tip of the Week: Treat a Procedural Fairness Letter as Your Main Chance
Two Federal Court decisions delivered orally on October 1 are a timely reminder of how much a procedural fairness letter (PFL) matters. In Kaur v. Canada (2026 FC 1216, Justice Battista), the Court set aside a five-year misrepresentation finding because the PFL stated only a bare conclusion, that a property valuation report had been “verified and confirmed” as fraudulent, without telling the applicant the real concern (the report’s similarity to reports in unrelated files). In Rattol v. Canada (2026 FC 1217), the same judge set aside refusals of a spousal open work permit and a child’s study permit because the officer treated bank-statement changes as evidence of an “inflated” account, in effect a credibility finding, without sending any PFL at all. A misrepresentation finding under section 40(1)(a) of the IRPA means five years of inadmissibility, no permanent residence application in that period and a lasting record in IRCC’s systems.
These applicants won through judicial review, which is slow, costly and never guaranteed (the usual outcome is a redetermination, not an approval), and the filing deadlines are short: normally 15 days for a matter arising in Canada and 60 days for one arising outside Canada under section 72 of the IRPA. The far better outcome is to avoid the finding in the first place.
If you receive a PFL:
• Read it closely and note the deadline stated in the letter. Missing it can be fatal to the application.
• Identify exactly what the officer is concerned about (a document, a date, a deposit, an employer) and answer that concern directly rather than submitting general material. If the letter is vague or conclusory, a licensed representative can request clarification of the specific factual concern.
• Back every explanation with evidence: pay records, sale or loan documents, gift declarations, third-party letters and sworn statements where appropriate.
• Prevent the problem upfront. Large or sudden changes in a bank balance can trigger credibility concerns, so document the source and purpose of significant deposits, and use verifiable third-party documents.
• Be accurate and consistent with everything previously submitted. Do not reconstruct details from memory when records exist.
• Get licensed help before you respond. Your PFL response is typically your best opportunity to resolve the concern before a finding is made.
Received a letter from IRCC? Contact Elgin Immigration at info@elginimmigration.com or visit elginimmigration.com to book a consultation.
How Elgin Immigration can help Whether you are building an Express Entry profile, weighing a provincial nomination, responding to an IRCC letter or planning an employer-supported application, our team can map the most realistic pathway for your situation. Visit elginimmigration.com or email info@elginimmigration.com to get started. |
This blog is for informational purposes only and does not constitute legal advice. Immigration policies and procedures can change; please contact Elgin Immigration at info@elginimmigration.com for advice specific to your situation.
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